Iran’s involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict has triggered a strong response from the West, which feels its supremacy in the Middle East increasingly threatened. The escalation of this military conflict could expand regionally, with Palestine once again at the epicenter of its destruction. In this situation, the hopes for Palestinian independence will vanish, and its global repercussions will be felt in two key sectors.

First, regional defense competition will destroy the hopes for peace in the MENA region. If tensions escalate, competition among military alliances will lead to modern imperialism. Second, instability in energy supply chains. As a vital oil checkpoint and transit route for oil giants, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a "hostage of war" for armed groups, pushing the energy crisis to a global scale.

Palestine is increasingly trapped between major interests with diverse flags: religion, economy, and politics—all eager to label themselves as the most "sacred" defenders. So, how should we look at this conflict from an alternative perspective?

Potential Counterbalance

The hegemony contest between the US and Iran is shaking the security of the Middle East. BRICS+ has emerged as a potential counterbalance, but the Islamic bloc within it is trapped in a dilemma: support the US-Israel for "economic" interests or support Palestine to maintain its Islamic legitimacy. As a result, political ambiguity has become the shortcut, with Palestine merely becoming a "political" tool to win international concessions.

Amidst this dilemma, China’s breakthrough in mediating the Saudi-Iran reconciliation last year has become the key to regional stability, reducing the escalation of the Palestine-Israel conflict and other proxy wars. With the loss of competition in both economic and religious leadership, the Islamic bloc now has the opportunity to challenge the US and engage with the "East." If successful, the shift in economic-political policies toward the "East" will be inevitable, with Beijing/BRICS+ poised to continue bridging the solidarity of both.

This Arab unity trend clearly isolates the US-Israel. Anti-Western sentiment is increasingly popular, as seen in the Anti-Israel Aggression Resolution at the Extraordinary Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh, highlighting double standards in the application of international law and norms. As a result, the political-diplomatic position of the US-Israel, including the progress of the Abraham Accords in 2020, is weakening, forcing them to rely on military strength. NATO's incorporation into the conflict is seen as a last-ditch effort to contain Iranian aggression.

BRICS+ aims for a two-state solution to resolve the conflict. President Putin even offered a "special seat" for Palestine in BRICS+, guaranteeing equality and full sovereignty in mediation, while reaffirming its commitment to being a long-term economic/security partner post-reconciliation. This is vital for the new independent state, and if successful, Palestine will be self-sufficient, and the revitalization of global trade through MENA will be ensured.

Initial Mandates

If Palestine is to have full sovereignty, it must prosper, and the initial mandate is the socio-economic reconstruction of Palestine. The way to do this is one: fair allocation of oil and gas resources in the occupied territories and Eastern Mediterranean, which since 2007 has been under exploration and development by British Gas and Israel. UNCTAD estimates that the new major gas discovery in the Levant Basin is worth $524 billion, and if Palestine can benefit from this, it can escape poverty and be rehabilitated.

The oil and gas potential of this "Holy Land" is undoubtedly a prize worth fighting for. Recognizing this potential, Iran promises a special corridor to the "East" market and full sovereignty over these resources. On the other hand, Israel/US refuses to release its grip. As a result, the Palestinian-Israeli territorial/ideological dispute has expanded into an oil and gas conflict.

In responding to this conflict, oil and gas companies and states tend to be pragmatic. Despite violating the 1995 Oslo II Accord and The Hague Regulations, trade and exploitation of energy will not be interrupted as long as Israel’s permission is obtained. With this de facto control, Israel guarantees energy supply to the European Union, replacing Russia. The large contracts between Israel and the EU reduce the impact of global boycott efforts and divestment sporadically pushed by pro-Palestinian activists.

To Address Oil Imperialism

There are two main solutions to combat oil imperialism. First, strengthen the international legal framework regarding maritime and territorial sovereignty and resource management. Israel, oil companies, and resource-managing states must comply with international law on maritime and land boundaries, with economic, diplomatic, and legal sanctions imposed on violators.

Furthermore, Arab unity becomes key to maintaining collective security and preventing expansion or violations of agreements.

Second, collective advocacy via BRICS+. Arab unity produces strong and binding advocacy, creating a deterrent for Israel. The integration of BRICS+ upstream-downstream markets offers an alternative market for the Islamic bloc, breaking free from US intervention and reducing dependence on the West.

Middle East independence means global prosperity. Peace becomes an opportunity for MENA to diversify its economy and facilitate integration via the Indian Ocean Region, IMEC, and north-south corridors. Full sovereignty will reduce external pressures and regional security instability.

Indonesia's Role

In line with the constitutional mandate, Indonesia steadfastly supports Palestinian sovereignty. Indonesia’s role is crucial in advocating for peace in international forums. Through active participation in BRICS+, Indonesia can accelerate conflict mediation and sustainable post-war socio-economic reconstruction. Diplomatic networks through normalization and strategic collaboration between the Islamic bloc, the West, and the East, with Israel-Palestine, must be bridged by Indonesia/BRICS+ to facilitate regional security.

To address expansive US intervention in the Middle East, Indonesia/BRICS+ must unite the Arab nations. With a united vision, the BRICS+ alliance and the Islamic bloc can control regional stability, economic sovereignty, and responses to aggressive US policies. Cooperation in regional defense capabilities becomes vital to enhancing interoperability, collective security, and solidifying relations, while preventing foreign intervention. This includes intelligence sharing, border security, and joint military operations to create a deterrent against the US' "right hand."

Additionally, intensifying economic cooperation with the "East" is necessary to boost economic diversification, knowledge transfer, and explore new potential strategic collaborations, such as renewable energy. By reducing the destructive hegemony of the US via BRICS+, controlling external interests becomes more manageable, supporting regional autonomy and fostering long-term peace in the Middle East.

In conclusion: If the Arabs unite, the Middle East will be free, and global prosperity can be achieved.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

"Holy Land" Oil & Gas Competition

Analysis Center for BRICS+ and ASEAN